Skip navigation

Scenario development process

Participants will submit their ideas during a structured four week process, guided at each stage by Jonathan Star an experienced facilitator.

Phase 1: Drivers
Participants will first be invited to submit drivers of change that could influence the evolution of health between now and 2040. 

Phase 2: Combining drivers and voting
Participants will be asked to combine drivers that could occur together. These combinations form the seeds of story lines that can eventually become part of the scenarios. Participants will also be asked to vote on the drivers they believe could have the greatest impact on the future. 

Phase 3: Scenario axes
Based on prior submissions, the facilitator will propose scenarios axes—large forces with uncertain outcomes that could have major impact. Each scenario axis thus desribes a pair of potentially very different outcomes that could arise in the future. Participants will then be invited to support (akin to a Facebook like) and comment on the axes they find most interesting.

Phase 4: Scenario narratives
The facilitator will prepare brief sketches of scenario narratives and pose a series of questions about them. Participants will be invited to respond to the questions, and these answers will serve to provide key details that will enrich and enliven the narratives. Afterward, the ideas submitted by participants will be woven into more detailed scenario narratives in a report.